Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Mark Lajal		Hugo Grenier

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.44	2.6	Watch
	1.58	2.49
	1.62	2.21	Watch
	1.5	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.58)	2.56 ↑ (2.21)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mark Lajal
63%

Hugo Grenier
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mark Lajal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Hugo Grenier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Lajal than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mark Lajal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Grenier than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hugo Grenier could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Mark Lajal - Hugo Grenier Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lajal will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Grenier will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Grenier (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hugo Grenier will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Grenier (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lajal is ranked ATP: 156. Grenier is ranked ATP: 199.

Lajal has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grenier is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lajal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lajal could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lajal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Grenier - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.61%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mark Lajal
ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Mark Lajal - Alex Molcan	Molcan A. retired ✺
16.09.25	Mark Lajal - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
13.09.25	Mark Lajal - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Mark Lajal - Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.09.25	Justin Engel - Mark Lajal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?WLWL
- Hugo Grenier
ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Hugo Grenier - Edas Butvilas	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Trey Hilderbrand - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Hugo Grenier - Stefanos Sakellaridis	1:2 ✺
04.09.25	Hugo Grenier - Alastair Gray	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hugo Grenier - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
09.01.24	Mark Lajal - Hugo Grenier	0:2

Mark Lajal - Hugo Grenier: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide