Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bergamo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 November 2025, Monday


	Marko Topo		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.25	1.55
	2.42	1.58
	2.16	1.63	Watch
	2.3	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.1)	1.56 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marko Topo
40.2%

Jan Choinski
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marko Topo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marko Topo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Marko Topo - Jan Choinski Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Choinski (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Choinski (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jan Choinski will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Choinski (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Topo is ranked ATP: 285. Choinski is ranked ATP: 129.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Topo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Topo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marko Topo
ATP Challenger
03.11.25	Matej Dodig - Marko Topo	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Patrick Kaukovalta - Marko Topo	0:2 ✺
27.10.25	Chris Rodesch - Marko Topo	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Lukas Pokorny - Marko Topo	0:2 ✺
20.10.25	George Loffhagen - Marko Topo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
10.11.25	Luka Pavlovic - Jan Choinski	Canceled ✺
ATP Metz
03.11.25	Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Jan Choinski - Kyrian Jacquet	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Jan Choinski - Harold Mayot	Mayot H. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
28.10.25	Jan Choinski - Billy Harris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 ?LW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Marko Topo - Jan Choinski	1:2

Marko Topo - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide