Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Metz, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday


	Jan Choinski		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	4.33	1.22	Watch
	4.4	1.2
	3.65	1.26	Watch
			Watch
	4.58	1.2	Watch
	4	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (2.95)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
22.5%

Lorenzo Sonego
77.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jan Choinski's form might have worsened.

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorenzo Sonego's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jan Choinski, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Sonego will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 131. Sonego is ranked ATP: 45.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Choinski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sonego is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Choinski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Metz
02.11.25	Jan Choinski - Kyrian Jacquet	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Jan Choinski - Harold Mayot	Mayot H. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
28.10.25	Jan Choinski - Billy Harris	0:2 ✺
27.10.25	Jan Choinski - Milos Karol	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Jan Choinski - Luka Mikrut	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 W?LWW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Paris
30.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
29.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
27.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Sebastian Korda	2:0 ✺
ATP Basel
20.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
17.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWLL

Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Sonego: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide