Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Trento, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday


	Marvin Moeller		Andrea Guerrieri

	1	2
			Watch
	1.8	1.9	Watch
	1.94	1.86
	2.00	1.70	Watch
	1.75	1.95
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.09)	1.85 ↑ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marvin Moeller
49.8%

Andrea Guerrieri
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marvin Moeller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marvin Moeller's performance.

Andrea Guerrieri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Guerrieri might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marvin Moeller than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Guerrieri than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Marvin Moeller - Andrea Guerrieri Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Moeller (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moeller is ranked ATP: 447. Guerrieri is ranked ATP: 485.

Moeller is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Guerrieri has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Moeller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Moeller won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Marvin Moeller - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.71%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marvin Moeller
ITF Tournaments
19.02.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Giovanni Oradini - Marvin Moeller	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Paul Jubb - Marvin Moeller	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marvin Moeller - Stefano Napolitano	Moeller M. walkover ✺
13.02.26	Daniel Masur - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWL?W
- Andrea Guerrieri
ITF Tournaments
19.02.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Michele Ribecai	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.02.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Niels Visker	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Mats Rosenkranz	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Alastair Gray - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
11.03.23	Marvin Moeller - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0

Marvin Moeller - Andrea Guerrieri: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide