Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Sao Paulo, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday


	Mary Stoiana		Paula Badosa

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.95	1.40
	2.85	1.37	Watch
	3	1.39	Watch
	3	1.39
	3.16	1.37	Watch
	2.85	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.68)	1.38 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mary Stoiana
31.7%

Paula Badosa
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

65.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mary Stoiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Paula Badosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mary Stoiana than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paula Badosa than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mary Stoiana - Paula Badosa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Badosa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Badosa (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Paula Badosa (1.42) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Paula Badosa will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Badosa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Stoiana is ranked WTA: 116., and Badosa is ranked WTA: 70..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Stoiana could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Badosa is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Paula Badosa - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.21%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mary Stoiana
WTA Sao Paulo
17.09.26	Dominika Salkova - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Mary Stoiana - Claire Liu	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.09.26	Julia Riera - Mary Stoiana	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Jasmin Ortenzi - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
01.09.26	Mary Stoiana - Alexandra Eala	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL
- Paula Badosa
WTA Sao Paulo
17.09.26	Jasmin Ortenzi - Paula Badosa	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Justina Mikulskyte - Paula Badosa	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Darja Semenistaja - Paula Badosa	Canceled ✺
WTA US Open
03.09.26	Paula Badosa - Cori Gauff	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WW?LW

Mary Stoiana - Paula Badosa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide