Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Matej Dodig		Jonas Forejtek

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.11	1.65	Watch
	2.02	1.7	Watch
	2	1.73
	2.06	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.75)	1.68 ↓ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
44.6%

Jonas Forejtek
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matej Dodig's form might have worsened.

Jonas Forejtek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jonas Forejtek's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matej Dodig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonas Forejtek than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jonas Forejtek, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	0%	58.3%

Matej Dodig - Jonas Forejtek Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Forejtek will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Forejtek: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 40%). Forejtek (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Forejtek (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Forejtek (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 230. Forejtek is ranked ATP: 360.

In recent matches, Dodig has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Forejtek is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dodig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Moise Kouame - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Matej Dodig - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Matej Dodig - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Matej Dodig - Giles Hussey	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Matej Dodig - August Holmgren	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWL?
- Jonas Forejtek
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Jonas Forejtek - Flynn Thomas	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Jonas Forejtek - Filippo Romano	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Jonas Forejtek - Henri Squire	Canceled ✺
04.02.26	Jonas Forejtek - Florian Broska	1:2 ✺
02.02.26	Vadym Ursu - Jonas Forejtek	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WW?LW

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