Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hamburg, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday


	Mathys Erhard		Alejandro Moro Canas

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.49	1.47	Watch
	2.62	1.51
	2.83	1.37	Watch
	2.55	1.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.83)	1.47 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Erhard
36.1%

Alejandro Moro Canas
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

67.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Erhard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Alejandro Moro Canas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mathys Erhard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Moro Canas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mathys Erhard - Alejandro Moro Canas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Erhard is ranked ATP: 323. Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 256.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Erhard may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Moro Canas could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
21.10.25	Christoph Negritu - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
18.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Etienne Donnet	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Jack Loge	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Alaa Trifi	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Igor Kudriashov - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWL
- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
22.10.25	Jannik Opitz - Alejandro Moro Canas	1:2 ✺
07.10.25	Luka Mikrut - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Alejandro Moro Canas - Luka Mikrut	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Alejandro Moro Canas - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Johannes Ingildsen - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLWW

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