Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: YOKOHAMA (JAPAN) - QUALIFICATION, HARD - FINAL

Date: 19 November 2023, Sunday


	Mathys Erhard		Naoki Nakagawa

	1	2
	2.4	1.48
	2.4	1.5
	2.34	1.55
	2.34	1.56
	2.25	1.57
	2.43	1.51	Watch
	2.36	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (1.93)	1.53 ↓ (1.78)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Erhard
39.3%

Naoki Nakagawa
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mathys Erhard's form might have worsened.

Naoki Nakagawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naoki Nakagawa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mathys Erhard, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naoki Nakagawa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Mathys Erhard - Naoki Nakagawa Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Erhard will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Nakagawa will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakagawa: 29.6% – 90.4%.

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Preview

Erhard is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Nakagawa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nakagawa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nakagawa will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
18.11.23	Mathys Erhard - Hibiki Arimoto	2:0 ✺
11.11.23	Mathys Erhard - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.10.23	Mathys Erhard - Guido Ivan Justo	Justo G. I. walkover ✺
26.10.23	Mathys Erhard - Filippo Mazzola	2:1 ✺
25.10.23	Mathys Erhard - Max Wiskandt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WL?WW
- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
18.11.23	Yusuke Takahashi - Naoki Nakagawa	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Blake Ellis - Naoki Nakagawa	2:1 ✺
07.11.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
05.11.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Yusuke Takahashi	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Yuto Oki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLWW

Mathys Erhard - Naoki Nakagawa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide