Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: MATSUYAMA (JAPAN), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 7 November 2023, Tuesday


	Naoki Nakagawa		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
			Watch
	2.3	1.55
	2.35	1.55	Watch
	2.4	1.59
	2.4	1.6
	2.25	1.57
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.3	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.55)	1.56 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naoki Nakagawa
40%

Shintaro Mochizuki
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naoki Nakagawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Naoki Nakagawa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shintaro Mochizuki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Naoki Nakagawa - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nakagawa will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

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Preview

Recent matches Nakagawa is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mochizuki is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Mochizuki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mochizuki will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Mochizuki to win the game is with odds 1.54.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nakagawa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
05.11.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Yusuke Takahashi	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Naoki Nakagawa - Yuto Oki	2:0 ✺
30.10.23	Hiroki Moriya - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
25.10.23	Seong Chan Hong - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
23.10.23	Blake Mott - Naoki Nakagawa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
02.11.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Taro Daniel	Mochizuki S. retired ✺
31.10.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Kaichi Uchida	2:0 ✺
30.10.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
21.10.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Aslan Karatsev	0:2 ✺
20.10.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Alexei Popyrin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 ?WWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.11.22	Shintaro Mochizuki - Naoki Nakagawa	0:2

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