Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fairfield, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday


	Mats Rosenkranz		Tristan McCormick

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.38	2.8	Watch
	1.38	3.13
	1.10	6.22	Watch
	1.36	3.01	Watch
	1.53	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.61)	3.42 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mats Rosenkranz
71.7%

Tristan McCormick
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mats Rosenkranz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mats Rosenkranz's performance.

Tristan McCormick has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tristan McCormick might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mats Rosenkranz than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mats Rosenkranz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan McCormick than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tristan McCormick could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mats Rosenkranz - Tristan McCormick Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rosenkranz is ranked ATP: 315. McCormick is ranked ATP: 493.

Rosenkranz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

McCormick is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Rosenkranz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rosenkranz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Mats Rosenkranz - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.37%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Tristan McCormick - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.63%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mats Rosenkranz
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Nicolas Mejia - Mats Rosenkranz	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Mats Rosenkranz - Marek Gengel	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Mats Rosenkranz - Cooper Williams	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.09.25	Hamish Stewart - Mats Rosenkranz	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Harry Wendelken - Mats Rosenkranz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWW
- Tristan McCormick
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Nicholas Godsick - Tristan McCormick	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Darian King - Tristan McCormick	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Tristan McCormick - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Tiago Torres - Tristan McCormick	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLWL

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