Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MADRID (SPAIN) - QUALIFICATION, CLAY - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 24 April 2023, Monday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Filip Misolic

	1	2
			Watch
	1.34	3.1
	1.33	3.3
	1.36	3.15
	1.34	3.35
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.32	3.16	Watch
	1.33	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.42)	3.17 ↑ (2.68)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
70.3%

Filip Misolic
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Filip Misolic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Filip Misolic than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Filip Misolic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Matteo Arnaldi - Filip Misolic Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Misolic will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Misolic is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Misolic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arnaldi will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Barcelona
19.04.23	Daniel Evans - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
18.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
16.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
15.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.04.23	Borna Gojo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWWW
- Filip Misolic
ATP Challenger
23.04.23	Filip Misolic - Raphael Collignon	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Filip Misolic - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
21.04.23	Filip Misolic - Andrea Pellegrino	2:1 ✺
20.04.23	Filip Misolic - Gianluca Mager	2:0 ✺
19.04.23	Filip Misolic - Juan Bautista Torres	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWW

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