Match Info

Date: 14 October 2022, Friday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Gregoire Barrere

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.45
	2.48	1.52
	2.46	1.46
	2.63	1.51
	2.5	1.5
	2.6	1.47	Watch
	2.6	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (1.98)	1.49 ↓ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
37%

Gregoire Barrere
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Arnaldi's form might have worsened.

Gregoire Barrere has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gregoire Barrere's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gregoire Barrere than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gregoire Barrere, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Matteo Arnaldi - Gregoire Barrere Predictions

Users Predictions: Gregoire Barrere will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Barrere is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Barrere will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Barrere to win the game is with odds 1.52.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
13.10.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
11.10.22	Alexander Shevchenko - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
11.10.22	Hugo Gaston - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
08.10.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Nick Hardt	1:2 ✺
07.10.22	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WW?LW
- Gregoire Barrere
ATP Challenger
13.10.22	Lukas Rosol - Gregoire Barrere	0:2 ✺
11.10.22	Luca Van Assche - Gregoire Barrere	0:2 ✺
02.10.22	Quentin Halys - Gregoire Barrere	1:2 ✺
01.10.22	Gregoire Barrere - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
30.09.22	Gregoire Barrere - Richard Gasquet	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWW

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