Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Referee: Andrei R. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3


	Matteo Arnaldi		Nicolas Jarry

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.1
	1.7	2.15	Watch
	1.76	2.17
	1.74	2.22
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.12	Watch
	1.73	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.76)	2.14 ↑ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
55.2%

Nicolas Jarry
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Nicolas Jarry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Jarry Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Jarry will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jarry is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roma
09.05.24	Harold Mayot - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
09.05.24	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.24	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
25.04.24	Christopher OConnell - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
19.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 W?LWL
- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Madrid
27.04.24	Nicolas Jarry - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Marco Trungelliti - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.24	Nicolas Jarry - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
27.03.24	Nicolas Jarry - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
26.03.24	Casper Ruud - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Adelaide
09.01.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Jarry	1:2
ATP Beijing
30.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Jarry	1:2

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