Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Referee: Moore S. (Usa)


	Christopher OConnell		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.36
	3.1	1.38	Watch
	3.24	1.38
	3.24	1.39
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.08	1.38	Watch
	3.2	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.5)	1.37 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christopher OConnell
30.1%

Matteo Arnaldi
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

66%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christopher OConnell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Christopher OConnell's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christopher OConnell than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.5%	0%	81.5%

Christopher OConnell - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Both players are now playing unstable.

OConnell could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arnaldi is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches OConnell won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christopher OConnell
ATP Munich
16.04.24	Taro Daniel - Christopher OConnell	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Christopher OConnell	2:0 ✺
07.04.24	Christopher OConnell - Aleksandar Vukic	2:1 ✺
06.04.24	Christopher OConnell - Maximilian Marterer	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.24	Christopher OConnell - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Barcelona
19.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
18.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
15.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Arthur Cazaux	Arnaldi M. retired ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Sumit Nagal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
23.04.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Christopher OConnell	0:2

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