Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Plovdiv, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 June 2026, Wednesday


	Matteo Martineau		Petr Nesterov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.10	1.65
	2.18	1.65	Watch
	2.28	1.69
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.10	1.67
	2.10	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.77)	1.66 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Martineau
43.7%

Petr Nesterov
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Martineau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Martineau's form might have worsened.

Petr Nesterov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Petr Nesterov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Martineau than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Petr Nesterov than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Matteo Martineau - Petr Nesterov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Martineau is ranked ATP: 339. Nesterov is ranked ATP: 396.

Martineau is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nesterov's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nesterov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Martineau
ATP Challenger
22.06.26	Matteo Martineau - Iliyan Radulov	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Matteo Martineau - Daniel Salazar	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	Tristan Boyer - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
09.06.26	Matteo Martineau - Mickael Kaouk	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Matteo Martineau - Maxime Janvier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW
- Petr Nesterov
ATP Challenger
23.06.26	Daniel Dutra da Silva - Petr Nesterov	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
18.06.26	Fausto Tabacco - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
17.06.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Petr Nesterov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Marco Cecchinato	0:2 ✺
08.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW

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