Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Florence, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Florence 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Matthew Donald		Filippo Romano

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Matthew Donald
53.3%

Filippo Romano
46.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.2%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matthew Donald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Filippo Romano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Filippo Romano than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Romano will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Donald is ranked ATP: 416., and Romano is ranked ATP: 301..

Donald has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Romano have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Romano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matthew Donald
ATP Challenger
22.10.26	Henry Searle - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
20.10.26	Matthew Donald - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:1 ✺
19.10.26	Matthew Donald - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:1 ✺
18.10.26	Matthew Donald - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.10.26	Giorgio Tabacco - Matthew Donald	Tabacco G. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWW?
- Filippo Romano
ATP Challenger
22.10.26	Filippo Romano - Yanaki Milev	2:0 ✺
20.10.26	Filippo Romano - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Andrej Nedic - Filippo Romano	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Filippo Romano - Harry Wendelken	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Filippo Romano - Ryan Peniston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLLW

Matthew Donald - Filippo Romano