Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday


	Max Houkes		Alexander Ritschard

	1	2
			Watch
	2.4	1.56
	2.28	1.54	Watch
	2.36	1.55	Watch
	1.84	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.84)	1.63 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Houkes
42.3%

Alexander Ritschard
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Houkes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Max Houkes's form might have worsened.

Alexander Ritschard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alexander Ritschard's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Max Houkes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Ritschard than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alexander Ritschard, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Max Houkes - Alexander Ritschard Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Ritschard (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ritschard (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Houkes is ranked ATP: 294. Ritschard is ranked ATP: 330.

Houkes is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ritschard has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Houkes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Max Houkes - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.14%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Max Houkes - Aristotelis Thanos	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.09.25	Max Houkes - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Max Houkes - Daniel Siniakov	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Max Houkes - Richard Antoni	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Max Houkes - Aaron James Williams	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWW
- Alexander Ritschard
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Stefan Latinovic - Alexander Ritschard	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Alexander Ritschard - Gianluca Cadenasso	1:2 ✺
09.09.25	Alexander Ritschard - Tom Gentzsch	Gentzsch T. retired ✺
26.08.25	Alexander Ritschard - Thiago Monteiro	Ritschard A. retired ✺
23.08.25	Cedrik-Marcel Stebe - Alexander Ritschard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WL??L

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