Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Alex De Minaur		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.38	3.1
	1.44	3.05
	1.38	3.04	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.38	3.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.32)	3.11 ↑ (3.09)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
69.2%

Matteo Arnaldi
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 106.

De Minaur has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arnaldi is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arnaldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, De Minaur is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, De Minaur won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Alexander Blockx - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
02.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
16.01.24	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	3:0

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