Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday


	Michael Geerts		Luca Potenza

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.65
			Watch
	1.43	2.59	Watch
	1.44	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.83)	2.63 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
64.9%

Luca Potenza
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Michael Geerts's performance.

Luca Potenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Potenza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Geerts that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Potenza than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Potenza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Michael Geerts - Luca Potenza Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Geerts will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Potenza will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geerts (votes: 1 - 50%). Potenza (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 324. Potenza is ranked ATP: 422.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Potenza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Geerts could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Geerts won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Geerts - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Michael Geerts - Mikail Alimli	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Michael Geerts - Stanislas Wawrinka	0:2 ✺
11.09.25	Federico Cina - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Michael Geerts - Robin Catry	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	Arthur Fery - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWL
- Luca Potenza
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Vadym Ursu - Luca Potenza	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.09.25	Luca Potenza - Remy Bertola	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Luca Potenza - Fabrizio Andaloro	2:0 ✺
11.09.25	Luca Potenza - Andrea Colombo	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Luca Potenza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.04.25	Luca Potenza - Michael Geerts	1:2
28.11.21	Michael Geerts - Luca Potenza	2:0

Michael Geerts - Luca Potenza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide