Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Curitiba, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday


	Miguel Tobon		Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.75	1.37
	2.81	1.45
	2.87	1.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.25)	1.4 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miguel Tobon
33.4%

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
66.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miguel Tobon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Miguel Tobon's form might have worsened.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Miguel Tobon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Miguel Tobon - Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tobon is ranked ATP: 599. Dellien Velasco is ranked ATP: 279.

Tobon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dellien Velasco is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dellien Velasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Dellien Velasco will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Dellien Velasco will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miguel Tobon
ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Miguel Tobon - Bruno Kuzuhara	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Matias Soto - Miguel Tobon	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Peter Makk - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Daniel Rincon - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLWL
- Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
ITF Tournaments
12.10.25	Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco - Eduardo Ribeiro	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Igor Gimenez - Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco - Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez	2:1 ✺
09.10.25	Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco - Gabriel Schenekenberg	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco - Victor Alvares de Castro Rocha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWWW

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