Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday


	Milos Karol		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.05	1.7	Watch
	2.18	1.61	Watch
	2.11	1.78
	2.21	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.11	1.68	Watch
	2.1	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.25)	1.66 ↑ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milos Karol
43.7%

Nicolas Mejia
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milos Karol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milos Karol than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milos Karol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Mejia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Milos Karol - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Karol will win (votes: 23 - 92%). Mejia will win (votes: 2 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karol: 81.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milos Karol will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Karol is ranked ATP: 357. Mejia is ranked ATP: 246.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mejia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mejia could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Milos Karol - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Nicolas Mejia - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 58.9%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milos Karol
ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Lukas Klein - Milos Karol	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Michal Krajci - Milos Karol	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Milos Karol - Cagan Efe Tufekci	Canceled ✺
25.08.25	Daniel Masur - Milos Karol	2:0 ✺
20.08.25	Milos Karol - Franco Agamenone	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WW?LL
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Marek Gengel	2:1 ✺
02.09.25	Ilya Ivashka - Nicolas Mejia	Ivashka I. retired ✺
14.08.25	Nicolas Mejia - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	Nicolas Mejia - Joshua Sheehy	2:1 ✺
12.08.25	Nicolas Mejia - Adhithya Ganesan	Ganesan A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 W?LW?

Milos Karol - Nicolas Mejia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide