Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday


	Moez Echargui		Luca Potenza

	1	2
			Watch
	1.48	2.40
	1.45	2.50
	1.44	2.58	Watch
	1.43	2.85
	1.45	2.56	Watch
	1.45	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.41)	2.57 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moez Echargui
63.9%

Luca Potenza
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moez Echargui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Luca Potenza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moez Echargui than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Potenza than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Moez Echargui - Luca Potenza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Echargui is ranked ATP: 215., and Potenza is ranked ATP: 485..

Echargui has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Potenza has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Potenza could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Echargui has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:0 (averaging 2:0 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Moez Echargui - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 65.36%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moez Echargui
Davis Cup World Group II
19.09.26	Moez Echargui - Muhammad Shoaib	Canceled ✺
18.09.26	Moez Echargui - Muzammil Murtaza	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Moez Echargui	2:1 ✺
10.09.26	Moez Echargui - Billy Harris	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Moez Echargui - Lucas Poullain	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 ?WLWW
- Luca Potenza
ATP Challenger
13.09.26	Luca Potenza - Finn Bass	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Luca Potenza - Inaki Montes De La Torre	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Edas Butvilas - Luca Potenza	1:2 ✺
03.09.26	Luca Potenza - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Luca Potenza - David Jorda Sanchis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
11.06.25	Luca Potenza - Moez Echargui	0:2
24.01.25	Luca Potenza - Moez Echargui	0:2

Moez Echargui - Luca Potenza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide