Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cassis, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday


	Moez Echargui		Lucas Poullain

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.10
	1.68	2.07
	1.74	2.15
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.71	2.12
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.68	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)	2.1 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moez Echargui
55.4%

Lucas Poullain
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moez Echargui has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moez Echargui than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Moez Echargui - Lucas Poullain Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Echargui is ranked ATP: 226. Poullain is ranked ATP: 343.

Recent form of Echargui has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Poullain is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Poullain may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Poullain will win today's game, with odds of 2.01.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Echargui won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.7%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moez Echargui
ATP Challenger
01.09.26	Moez Echargui - Jack Pinnington Jones	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.26	Moez Echargui - Hugo Dellien	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.08.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Moez Echargui	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Moez Echargui - Moise Kouame	2:1 ✺
20.08.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Moez Echargui	Ugo Carabelli C. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLW?
- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
23.08.26	Lucas Poullain - Arvid Nordquist	Canceled ✺
22.08.26	Oliver Tarvet - Lucas Poullain	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Lui Maxted - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Michael Geerts - Lucas Poullain	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Viktor Durasovic - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 ?LWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.04.25	Lucas Poullain - Moez Echargui	0:2
ITF Tournaments
10.12.20	Lucas Poullain - Moez Echargui	2:1

Moez Echargui - Lucas Poullain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide