Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Chicago, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday


	Naoki Nakagawa		Alfredo Perez

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.6	1.44
	2.6	1.44	Watch
	3.35	1.33
	2.64	1.45	Watch
	2.62	1.44	Watch
	2.63	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.62)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naoki Nakagawa
34.1%

Alfredo Perez
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naoki Nakagawa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Alfredo Perez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfredo Perez than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Naoki Nakagawa - Alfredo Perez Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Perez (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3 Games - Nakagawa (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakagawa (votes: 1 - 50%). Perez (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nakagawa is ranked ATP: 350. Perez is ranked ATP: 372.

Nakagawa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Perez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Perez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Perez might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
27.07.25	Naoki Nakagawa - Dhakshineswar Suresh	Nakagawa N. retired ✺
20.07.25	Naoki Nakagawa - Kaylan Bigun	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Patrick Kypson - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
09.07.25	Naoki Nakagawa - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
01.07.25	Naoki Nakagawa - Karue Sell	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 ?LLLL
- Alfredo Perez
ATP Washington
19.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Andrea Vavassori	Vavassori A. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
16.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
14.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Tsung-Hao Huang	2:0 ✺
08.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Leandro Riedi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 ?LWWL

Naoki Nakagawa - Alfredo Perez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide