Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2026, Friday


	Paul Inchauspe		Keegan Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	2.50	1.48
	2.45	1.49	Watch
	2.64	1.57
	2.46	1.48	Watch
	2.45	1.55	Watch
	2.42	1.5	Watch
	2.5	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (1.84)	1.5 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paul Inchauspe
37.7%

Keegan Smith
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paul Inchauspe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paul Inchauspe's form might have worsened.

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Keegan Smith's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paul Inchauspe than the current prediction. (+17.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paul Inchauspe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-17.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Keegan Smith, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Paul Inchauspe - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: Keegan Smith will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Inchauspe is ranked ATP: 770. Smith is ranked ATP: 209.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paul Inchauspe
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Florent Bax - Paul Inchauspe	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Paul Inchauspe - Cyril Vandermeersch	Vandermeersch C. Retired ✺
15.07.26	Chris Rodesch - Paul Inchauspe	2:0 ✺
13.07.26	Paul Inchauspe - Hamish Stewart	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.07.26	Paul Inchauspe - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 W?LWL
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Digvijay Pratap Singh - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Niels McDonald - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Keegan Smith - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Guido Ivan Justo - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLLW

Paul Inchauspe - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide