Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braunschweig, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 July 2026, Tuesday


	Niels McDonald		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	1.80	1.91	Watch
	1.65	2.10	Watch
	1.67	2.15	Watch
	1.75	2.17
	1.65	2.09	Watch
	1.72	2.14	Watch
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.75	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.59)	2.07 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Niels McDonald
54.8%

Keegan Smith
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Niels McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Niels McDonald than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Niels McDonald, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Keegan Smith, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Niels McDonald - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. McDonald will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Smith will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for McDonald: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 569. Smith is ranked ATP: 247.

McDonald has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Smith is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

McDonald may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Niels McDonald
ATP Challenger
30.06.26	Niels McDonald - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	0:2 ✺
25.06.26	Cezar Cretu - Niels McDonald	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Niels McDonald - Francesco Passaro	2:1 ✺
23.06.26	Michele Ribecai - Niels McDonald	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.06.26	Niels McDonald - Sandro Kopp	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWWW
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
05.07.26	Keegan Smith - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Guido Ivan Justo - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
03.07.26	Andrej Nedic - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
01.07.26	Keegan Smith - Henri Squire	2:0 ✺
30.06.26	Keegan Smith - Gabriel Ghetu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LWWWW

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