Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Pierre-Hugues Herbert		Gilles Arnaud Bailly

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.39	2.8
	1.48	2.79
	1.41	2.68	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.42	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.42)	2.76 ↑ (2.66)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pierre-Hugues Herbert
66.1%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pierre-Hugues Herbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pierre-Hugues Herbert than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Pierre Hugues Herbert - Gilles Arnaud Bailly Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Herbert (votes: 1 - 50%). Bailly (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Pierre-Hugues Herbert will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Herbert is ranked ATP: 182. Bailly is ranked ATP: 211.

Herbert is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Bailly has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Herbert may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Herbert is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Herbert won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 65.3%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Challenger
01.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Titouan Droguet	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Mark Lajal - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Raphael Perot - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWWW
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Stefanos Sakellaridis	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
19.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Max Hans Rehberg	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Antwerp
13.10.24	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	0:2

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Gilles Arnaud Bailly: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide