Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Saint Brieuc, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Pierre-Hugues Herbert		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.45
	2.71	1.52
	1.20	4.28	Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.46)	1.94 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pierre-Hugues Herbert
45.4%

Hugo Gaston
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pierre-Hugues Herbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pierre-Hugues Herbert's performance.

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hugo Gaston might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pierre-Hugues Herbert than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pierre-Hugues Herbert that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hugo Gaston could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Pierre Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Gaston (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hugo Gaston will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hugo Gaston will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaston (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Herbert is ranked ATP: 182. Gaston is ranked ATP: 95.

Herbert is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gaston's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gaston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gaston could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Herbert won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.81%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Challenger
27.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Titouan Droguet	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Mark Lajal - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Raphael Perot - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
16.02.26	Valentin Royer - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWLW
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
27.02.26	Ugo Blanchet - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Mikhail Kukushkin - Hugo Gaston	Gaston H. walkover ✺
24.02.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Nishesh Basavareddy - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 W?WLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marseille
05.02.24	Hugo Gaston - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:1

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Hugo Gaston: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide