Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Gilles Arnaud Bailly

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.39	2.8	Watch
	1.35	3.11	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.42	2.93	Watch
	1.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.6)	2.84 ↑ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
67%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
33%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roberto Carballes Baena's performance.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gilles Arnaud Bailly might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Gilles Arnaud Bailly Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Bailly will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roberto Carballes Baena will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 147. Bailly is ranked ATP: 207.

Carballes Baena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carballes Baena is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Roberto Carballes Baena - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.55%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Australian Open
11.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Bouquier	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
05.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
14.10.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nerman Fatic	0:2 ✺
01.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWL?
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Australian Open
11.01.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Jack Pinnington Jones	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Mikhail Kukushkin	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.11.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Rafael Izquierdo Luque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLLW

Roberto Carballes Baena - Gilles Arnaud Bailly