Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Sharm ElSheikh 21, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sharm ElSheikh 21 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Pierre Yves Bailly		Vadym Ursu

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Pierre Yves Bailly
67.8%

Vadym Ursu
32.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pierre Yves Bailly has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pierre Yves Bailly's performance.

Vadym Ursu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vadym Ursu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pierre Yves Bailly than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pierre Yves Bailly that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vadym Ursu than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vadym Ursu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bailly (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Bailly is ranked ATP: 946. Ursu is ranked ATP: 456.

Bailly has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ursu is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Bailly may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bailly might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre Yves Bailly
ITF Tournaments
10.12.25	Kirill Filaretov - Pierre Yves Bailly	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Christian Sigsgaard - Pierre Yves Bailly	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	Leonid Sheyngezikht - Pierre Yves Bailly	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Diego Fernandez Flores - Pierre Yves Bailly	0:2 ✺
21.11.25	Pierre Yves Bailly - Gabriele Bosio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWWL
- Vadym Ursu
ITF Tournaments
07.12.25	Faris Zakaryia - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Vadym Ursu - Artur Kukasian	2:0 ✺
05.12.25	Jan Hrazdil - Vadym Ursu	1:2 ✺
04.12.25	Luca Staeheli - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Marcin Andrzejczak - Vadym Ursu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW

Pierre Yves Bailly - Vadym Ursu