Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 June 2025, Thursday


	Rafael Jodar		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.94	1.92
			Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.94	1.79	Watch
	1.74	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.86)	1.85 ↓ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
49.3%

Arthur Gea
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rafael Jodar - Arthur Gea Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 677. Gea is ranked ATP: 295.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Gea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Gea - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
25.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
23.06.25	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Rafael Jodar - Andres Martin	1:2 ✺
03.06.25	Andres Andrade - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
28.05.25	Rafael Jodar - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWL
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
25.06.25	Arthur Gea - Oriol Roca Batalla	2:1 ✺
23.06.25	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
18.06.25	Arthur Gea - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Arthur Gea - Robert Strombachs	2:1 ✺
12.06.25	Clement Tabur - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLWL

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