Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Canberra, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 January 2026, Thursday


	Rafael Jodar		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.31	3.15	Watch
	1.33	3.06	Watch
	1.36	3
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.33	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.42)	3.1 ↑ (2.63)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
70%

Sho Shimabukuro
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rafael Jodar's performance.

Sho Shimabukuro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sho Shimabukuro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Rafael Jodar - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Jodar will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 165. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 147.

Jodar has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Shimabukuro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Jodar is a strong favorite.

We predict that Jodar will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Jaime Faria - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fery	Fery A. retired ✺
03.01.26	Rafael Jodar - Pavle Marinkov	2:0 ✺
ATP Next Gen Finals
19.12.25	Martin Landaluce - Rafael Jodar	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WW?WW
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Chris Rodesch	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Edward Winter	2:0 ✺
14.11.25	Kaichi Uchida - Sho Shimabukuro	Shimabukuro S. retired ✺
13.11.25	Maximus Jones - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
12.11.25	Kokoro Isomura - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WW?WW

Rafael Jodar - Sho Shimabukuro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide