Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cary, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 July 2025, Tuesday


	Rei Sakamoto		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.62	2.15	Watch
	1.64	2.12	Watch
	1.64	2.29
			Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.16	Watch
	1.64	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)	2.16 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
56.9%

Nicolas Mejia
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rei Sakamoto's performance.

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Mejia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rei Sakamoto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Mejia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rei Sakamoto - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 288. Mejia is ranked ATP: 243.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sakamoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolas Mejia - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Luca Van Assche - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
18.06.25	Rei Sakamoto - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:1 ✺
10.06.25	Rei Sakamoto - Dusan Lajovic	0:2 ✺
03.06.25	Gauthier Onclin - Rei Sakamoto	Canceled ✺
02.06.25	Rei Sakamoto - Mats Rosenkranz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWL?W
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
26.06.25	Nicolas Mejia - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	0:2 ✺
25.06.25	Nicolas Mejia - Pedro Rodrigues	2:1 ✺
23.06.25	Nicolas Mejia - Nicolas Kicker	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.06.25	Nicolas Mejia - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
13.06.25	Nicolas Mejia - Alex Martinez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWLW

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