Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cary, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday


	Rio Noguchi		Alex Martinez

	1	2
			Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.5	2.4	Watch
	1.57	2.46
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.6	2.3	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.5	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.33)	2.35 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
60.3%

Alex Martinez
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Noguchi's form might have worsened.

Alex Martinez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex Martinez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Noguchi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Martinez than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex Martinez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Rio Noguchi - Alex Martinez Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Noguchi will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Martinez will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 214. Martinez is ranked ATP: 317.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Martinez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Noguchi is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Clement Tabur	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Paul Jubb	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
07.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Patrick Brady	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWLW
- Alex Martinez Tennis
ATP Challenger
08.06.26	Alex Martinez - Alejo Sanchez Quilez	0:2 ✺
07.06.26	Alex Martinez - Nitin Kumar Sinha	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Alex Martinez	Martinez A. Retired ✺
26.05.26	Daniel Elahi Galan - Alex Martinez	1:2 ✺
25.05.26	Alex Martinez - Stefan Adrian Andreescu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LW?WW

Rio Noguchi - Alex Martinez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide