Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon - Qualification, grass - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 June 2026, Monday

Location: Community Sports Centre Roehampton (London)


	Rio Noguchi		Luca Nardi

	1	2
	2.63	1.44
	2.30	1.57
	2.36	1.56
	2.47	1.6
	2.32	1.58	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.68	1.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.63)	1.54 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
38.8%

Luca Nardi
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Rio Noguchi - Luca Nardi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 218. Nardi is ranked ATP: 173.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Noguchi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nardi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Noguchi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Rio Noguchi - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.38%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
16.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Clement Tabur	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Paul Jubb	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
07.06.26	Rio Noguchi - Patrick Brady	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
19.05.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWL
- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Luca Nardi - Giles Hussey	2:0 ✺
13.06.26	Luca Nardi - Oscar Weightman	2:1 ✺
10.06.26	Luca Nardi - Jacob Fearnley	1:2 ✺
04.06.26	Luca Nardi - Remy Bertola	1:2 ✺
02.06.26	Luca Nardi - Oriol Roca Batalla	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.03.23	Rio Noguchi - Luca Nardi	0:2
ITF Tournaments
20.04.21	Luca Nardi - Rio Noguchi	1:2

Rio Noguchi - Luca Nardi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide