Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: MANAMA (BAHRAIN), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 14 February 2023, Tuesday


	Salvatore Caruso		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.4	1.28
	3.55	1.28
	3.72	1.28
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.36	1.31	Watch
	3.35	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.71)	1.29 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salvatore Caruso
27.4%

Matteo Arnaldi
72.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salvatore Caruso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Salvatore Caruso's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salvatore Caruso than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Salvatore Caruso - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Caruso is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arnaldi in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Caruso could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arnaldi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Arnaldi to win the game is with odds 1.41.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Salvatore Caruso
ATP Challenger
13.02.23	Viktor Durasovic - Salvatore Caruso	2:1 ✺
12.02.23	Dan Alexandru Tomescu - Salvatore Caruso	0:2 ✺
07.02.23	Abedallah Shelbayh - Salvatore Caruso	2:0 ✺
06.02.23	Joao Domingues - Salvatore Caruso	Caruso S. walkover ✺
05.02.23	Salvatore Caruso - Alvaro Lopez San Martin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWL?W
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
05.02.23	Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
04.02.23	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
03.02.23	Oleksii Krutykh - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
02.02.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
31.01.23	Alessandro Giannessi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW

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