Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bad Waltersdorf, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday


	Sebastian Sorger		Jozef Kovalik

	1	2
	4	1.22	Watch
	3.3	1.28
	3.55	1.25	Watch
	3.70	1.24	Watch
			Watch
	3.37	1.3	Watch
	3.75	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.62)	1.25 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Sorger
25.7%

Jozef Kovalik
74.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

67.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Sorger has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sebastian Sorger's form might have worsened.

Jozef Kovalik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jozef Kovalik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Sorger than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sebastian Sorger, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jozef Kovalik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Sebastian Sorger - Jozef Kovalik Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sorger will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Kovalik will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kovalik: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kovalik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5 Games - Sorger (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sorger (votes: 1 - 50%). Kovalik (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sorger is ranked ATP: 632. Kovalik is ranked ATP: 515.

In recent matches, Sorger has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kovalik is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sorger may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kovalik will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Kovalik will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Sorger
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Sebastian Sorger - Jerome Kym	Canceled ✺
31.08.25	Dennis Novak - Sebastian Sorger	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.08.25	Sebastian Sorger - Andrej Nedic	0:2 ✺
27.08.25	Matic Dimic - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Sean Cuenin - Sebastian Sorger	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 ?LLWL
- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
15.09.25	Jozef Kovalik - Marvin Moeller	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Marco Cecchinato - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Jozef Kovalik - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:2 ✺
09.09.25	Michael Vrbensky - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	Marvin Moeller - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLWW

Sebastian Sorger - Jozef Kovalik: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide