Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Szczecin, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday


	Jozef Kovalik		Thiago Augustin Tirante

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.4	1.28	Watch
	3.05	1.3	Watch
	3.41	1.33
	5.63	1.12	Watch
			Watch
	3.54	1.02	Watch
	2.7	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (2.7)	1.25 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jozef Kovalik
25.8%

Thiago Augustin Tirante
74.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

65.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jozef Kovalik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jozef Kovalik's form might have worsened.

Thiago Augustin Tirante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thiago Augustin Tirante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jozef Kovalik, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Augustin Tirante than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thiago Augustin Tirante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Jozef Kovalik - Thiago Augustin Tirante Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kovalik will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tirante will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tirante (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kovalik is ranked ATP: 552. Tirante is ranked ATP: 116.

Kovalik is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tirante has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kovalik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tirante is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Thiago Augustin Tirante - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 65.69%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Michael Vrbensky - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	Marvin Moeller - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
07.09.25	Bartosz Surudo - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Jan Choinski - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Dennis Novak - Jozef Kovalik	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW
- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Alexey Vatutin - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Kilian Feldbausch - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	August Holmgren - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Zsombor Piros - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	Jack Kennedy - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLW

Jozef Kovalik - Thiago Augustin Tirante: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide