Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 11, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday


	Sebastian Sorger		Luca Potenza

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.65	2.13
	1.62	2.12	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.83)	2.11 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Sorger
56%

Luca Potenza
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Sorger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Sorger's performance.

Luca Potenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Potenza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Sorger than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Potenza than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Sebastian Sorger - Luca Potenza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sorger is ranked ATP: 601. Potenza is ranked ATP: 364.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Potenza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Sorger - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Luca Potenza - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Sorger
ITF Tournaments
14.10.25	Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Sebastian Sorger - Felix Gill	0:2 ✺
08.10.25	Gabriele Crivellaro - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
07.10.25	Alessandro Mondazzi - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
01.10.25	Sebastian Sorger - Gabriele Piraino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWWL
- Luca Potenza
ITF Tournaments
14.10.25	Giovanni Oradini - Luca Potenza	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.10.25	Luca Potenza - Petr Brunclik	0:2 ✺
02.10.25	Edas Butvilas - Luca Potenza	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Darwin Blanch - Luca Potenza	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Luca Potenza - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWWL

Sebastian Sorger - Luca Potenza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide