Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: PUERTO VALLARTA (MEXICO), HARD - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 9 March 2023, Thursday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Gastao Elias

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.95	1.82
	1.86	1.81
	2.02	1.87
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.95	1.79	Watch
	1.87	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.62)	1.82 ↓ (2.17)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
48.9%

Gastao Elias
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shintaro Mochizuki's form might have worsened.

Gastao Elias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gastao Elias's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shintaro Mochizuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gastao Elias, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Gastao Elias Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Elias will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elias: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Elias is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mochizuki could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Mochizuki to win the game is with odds 1.86.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
07.03.23	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
03.03.23	Borna Gojo - Shintaro Mochizuki	Mochizuki S. retired ✺
02.03.23	Alexis Galarneau - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
28.02.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Rinky Hijikata	2:1 ✺
27.02.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Illya Marchenko	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 W?WWW
- Gastao Elias
ATP Challenger
07.03.23	Gastao Elias - Facundo Mena	Mena F. retired ✺
03.03.23	Gastao Elias - Aleksandar Kovacevic	0:2 ✺
02.03.23	Aziz Dougaz - Gastao Elias	0:2 ✺
28.02.23	Gastao Elias - Enzo Couacaud	2:0 ✺
20.02.23	Maximilian Marterer - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 ?LWWL

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