Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Stefano Napolitano		Luka Mikrut

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.29	1.56
	2.57	1.55
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.32	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.5)	1.55 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Napolitano
39.9%

Luka Mikrut
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Luka Mikrut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Mikrut than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Stefano Napolitano - Luka Mikrut Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Napolitano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Napolitano is ranked ATP: 422. Mikrut is ranked ATP: 165.

Napolitano is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mikrut has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Napolitano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mikrut could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Maximilian Neuchrist	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Dillon Beckles	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.02.26	Marvin Moeller - Stefano Napolitano	Moeller M. walkover ✺
13.02.26	Yaroslav Demin - Stefano Napolitano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWW?W
- Luka Mikrut
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Jonas Forejtek - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Luka Mikrut	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Giles Hussey - Luka Mikrut	1:2 ✺
10.02.26	Izan Almazan Valiente - Luka Mikrut	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Nikolai Barsukov - Luka Mikrut	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWWL

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