Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zadar, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Stefano Travaglia		Alex Molcan

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.08	Watch
	1.72	2.23
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.67	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.84)	2.09 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Travaglia
55.3%

Alex Molcan
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Travaglia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stefano Travaglia's performance.

Alex Molcan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Molcan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Travaglia than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefano Travaglia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Molcan than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Molcan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Stefano Travaglia - Alex Molcan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Travaglia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Stefano Travaglia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Travaglia is ranked ATP: 161. Molcan is ranked ATP: 200.

Travaglia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Molcan has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Travaglia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Travaglia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Molcan - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Travaglia
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Henri Squire	2:0 ✺
17.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Mili Poljicak	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Aidan Mayo	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Ofek Shimanov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLWW
- Alex Molcan
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Alex Molcan	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Christian Langmo - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Maxim Mrva - Alex Molcan	Canceled ✺
02.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WW?LL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Alex Molcan - Stefano Travaglia	1:2
ATP Marrakech
05.04.22	Alex Molcan - Stefano Travaglia	2:0

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