Match Info

Date: 21 May 2021, Friday


	Taro Daniel		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.3	1.28
	3.6	1.27	Watch
	3.3	1.27
	3.56	1.32
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.52	1.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.67)	1.29 ↓ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taro Daniel
27.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
72.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

64.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taro Daniel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Taro Daniel's form might have worsened.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlos Alcaraz Garfia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taro Daniel than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Taro Daniel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Taro Daniel - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Daniel will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Daniel has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alcaraz Garfia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Daniel is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alcaraz Garfia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Taro Daniel
ATP Challenger
20.05.21	Hugo Dellien - Taro Daniel	1:2 ✺
19.05.21	Taro Daniel - Leonardo Mayer	2:0 ✺
17.05.21	Blaz Rola - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
13.05.21	Dennis Novak - Taro Daniel	2:0 ✺
12.05.21	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Challenger
20.05.21	Gastao Elias - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
19.05.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
17.05.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
05.05.21	Rafael Nadal - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0 ✺
03.05.21	Adrian Mannarino - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW

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