Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	1.08	8	Watch
			Watch
	1.08	8.35
	1.02	14.13	Watch
	1.07	8.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.06 ↓ (1.08)	9.7 ↑ (8)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
90.1%

Brandon Nakashima
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.1%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Nakashima will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Nakashima (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Nakashima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Tokyo
27.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
21.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
07.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Tokyo
26.09.25	Brandon Nakashima - Marton Fucsovics	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
22.09.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Marcos Giron - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Juncheng Shang - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Next Gen Finals
10.11.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Brandon Nakashima	3:0
ATP Challenger
19.05.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Brandon Nakashima	2:1

Upcoming Matches