Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Thiago Monteiro		Elmer Moller

	1	2
			Watch
	1.75	1.95
	1.82	1.95	Watch
	1.77	1.94	Watch
	1.76	2.04
	1.76	1.93	Watch
	1.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.54)	1.96 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
52.6%

Elmer Moller
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thiago Monteiro's form might have worsened.

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elmer Moller's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Thiago Monteiro - Elmer Moller Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Monteiro will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Moller will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Monteiro is ranked ATP: 232., and Moller is ranked ATP: 175..

In recent outings, Monteiro has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Moller is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Moller may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Monteiro holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Monteiro has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Mika Petkovic - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Thiago Monteiro - Marco Trungelliti	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Vitaliy Sachko - Thiago Monteiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWW
- Elmer Moller
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Carlos Taberner - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
19.09.26	Elmer Moller - Iliyan Radulov	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Elmer Moller - Grigor Dimitrov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.09.26	Elmer Moller - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Elmer Moller	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.04.25	Elmer Moller - Thiago Monteiro	2:1

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