Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: RIO DE JANEIRO (BRAZIL), CLAY - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 23 February 2024, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Thiago Monteiro		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.1	1.35	Watch
	3.26	1.39
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.85	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.6)	1.39 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
31.4%

Sebastian Baez
68.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

64.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thiago Monteiro's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Baez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Thiago Monteiro - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Monteiro will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Baez will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monteiro: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Monteiro is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Baez could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Baez will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Baez to win the game is with odds 1.43.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Monteiro won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.24	Thiago Monteiro - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
20.02.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Thiago Monteiro	Alcaraz C. retired ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.24	Andrea Vavassori - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
10.02.24	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Thiago Monteiro	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
03.02.24	Elias Ymer - Thiago Monteiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 W?LWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.24	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
20.02.24	Corentin Moutet - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
16.02.24	Sebastian Baez - Federico Coria	0:2 ✺
15.02.24	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
13.02.24	Sebastian Baez - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Santiago
25.02.22	Sebastian Baez - Thiago Monteiro	2:1
ATP Rio de Janeiro
15.02.22	Sebastian Baez - Thiago Monteiro	1:2
ATP Challenger
21.11.21	Thiago Monteiro - Sebastian Baez	0:2
24.10.21	Thiago Monteiro - Sebastian Baez	0:2

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