Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Santiago 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	09:45	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2
Bulgaria	00:45	Max Sport 2
Czech Republic	23:45	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	23:45	TV2 Play
Finland	00:45	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	23:45	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	22:45	Sport TV5
Romania	00:45	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	23:45	TV4 Play


	Sebastian Baez		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.37	1.57	Watch
	2.46	1.62
	4.20	1.21	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.37)	1.52 ↓ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
36.1%

Luciano Darderi
63.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luciano Darderi will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luciano Darderi will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 52. Darderi is ranked ATP: 21.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baez won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Darderi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Baez won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Jaime Faria - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Carlos Taberner - Sebastian Baez	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWL?L
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
15.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	1:3
ATP Bastad
18.07.25	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2
ATP US Open
26.08.24	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	3:1
ATP Hamburg
19.07.24	Luciano Darderi - Sebastian Baez	1:2
ATP Buenos Aires
15.02.24	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	2:0
ATP Cordoba
10.02.24	Luciano Darderi - Sebastian Baez	2:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Paris
31.10.26	Sebastian Baez - Damir Dzumhur	✺

Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi