Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)


	Timofey Skatov		Gilles Arnaud Bailly

	1	2
	1.65	2.15
	1.64	2.21
	1.68	2.33
	1.64	2.15	Watch
	1.69	2.09
	1.66	2.16	Watch
	1.65	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.02)	2.18 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Timofey Skatov
56.8%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Timofey Skatov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Timofey Skatov's performance.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gilles Arnaud Bailly might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Timofey Skatov than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Timofey Skatov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gilles Arnaud Bailly could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Timofey Skatov - Gilles Arnaud Bailly Predictions

Users Predictions: Timofey Skatov will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Skatov is ranked ATP: 205. Bailly is ranked ATP: 240.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Skatov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Timofey Skatov
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Gauthier Onclin - Timofey Skatov	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Alex Barrena - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
31.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
30.07.26	Timofey Skatov - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Timofey Skatov - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWW
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Challenger
18.08.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Norbert Gombos	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.08.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Raphael Perot	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Fadi Bidan	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Mac Visser	2:0 ✺
11.08.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Zaccharie Cado	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWW

Timofey Skatov - Gilles Arnaud Bailly: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide