Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo (Japan), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday


	Tomas Martin Etcheverry		Christopher OConnell

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2	1.78
	2.09	1.72	Watch
	2.02	1.86
	2.12	1.75
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.09	1.74	Watch
	2.09	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.7)	1.76 ↓ (2.14)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
46.1%

Christopher OConnell
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Martin Etcheverry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tomas Martin Etcheverry's form might have worsened.

Christopher OConnell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Christopher OConnell's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Martin Etcheverry than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tomas Martin Etcheverry, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christopher OConnell than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Christopher OConnell, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	0%	63.6%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Christopher OConnell Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Etcheverry will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). OConnell will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for OConnell: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Etcheverry is ranked ATP: 35. OConnell is ranked ATP: 79.

Recent matches Etcheverry is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

OConnell is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Etcheverry could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's OConnell to win the game is with odds 1.75.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.24	Daniel Evans - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alexander Zverev	1:3 ✺
28.08.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:3 ✺
26.08.24	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
20.08.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Zizou Bergs	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWL
- Christopher OConnell
ATP Tokyo
23.09.24	Taro Daniel - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Otto Virtanen - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
21.09.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Christopher OConnell	2:1 ✺
19.09.24	Pavel Kotov - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.24	Christopher OConnell - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLWW

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