Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Indian Wells (USA) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	01:45	ESPN 2
Czech Republic	05:45	Premier Sport 1
Germany	05:45	Sky Sport Top event
Greece	06:45	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	05:45	Ziggo Sport
Poland	05:45	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	04:45	Sport TV2
Romania	06:45	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 4
Sweden	05:45	TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	06:45	Setanta Sports Premium


	Tommy Paul		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.83	Watch
	2	1.82	Watch
	2.06	1.85
	1.94	1.86	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.02	1.87	Watch
	2	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.22)	1.83 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
47.8%

Daniil Medvedev
52.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tommy Paul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Medvedev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 14 - 34.1%). Medvedev will win (votes: 27 - 65.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 51.4% – 80.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rain delay.

Paul is ranked ATP: 11. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 6.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Medvedev could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paul won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:9 (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Tommy Paul - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	Tommy Paul - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
26.02.25	Marcos Giron - Tommy Paul	Giron M. walkover ✺
24.02.25	Gabriel Diallo - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Dallas
08.02.25	Denis Shapovalov - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WW?WL
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Daniil Medvedev	Michelsen A. retired ✺
07.03.25	Bu Yunchaokete - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
27.02.25	Daniil Medvedev - Tallon Griekspoor	1:2 ✺
26.02.25	Daniil Medvedev - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
25.02.25	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 ?WLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
14.05.24	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
16.03.24	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	1:2
ATP Beijing
29.09.23	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.21	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	1:3

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	✺
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Adrian Mannarino - Daniil Medvedev	✺

Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev